The 13,000 nuclear warheads that exist across the world today are enough to eradicate humanity several times over. Given the real risk that nuclear disruption still represents, it should feature more prominently in the public debate. In this episode, we speak to Benoît Pelopidas, Associate Professor at Sciences Po, to understand the state of the threat today. We ask him about his research on close calls and the role of luck in preventing nuclear catastrophe. He unravels much of the prevailing logic around nuclear deterrence, warns of the dangers of relying on information from the official experts in nuclear weapons states, and discusses how the magnitude of the threat can be conveyed to the general public.